Bankrate.com reported that the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.08%, up from last week’s 5.01%, according to its weekly national survey ending April 6, 2011. It also reported that the average conforming 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.27%, up from 4.25% last week.
April 14, 2011
E-Book Sales in January 2011
E-book sales are skyrocketing, which is one reason why e-latecomer Borders is sitting in Chapter 11 while e-embracer Barnes & Nobles is not. According to the Association of American Publishers, a coalition of 300 book publishers, total books sales on all platforms, in all categories, hit $805.7 million for January 2011, down 1.9% from $821 million in January 2010. It also noted that January 2011 electronic book net sales increased to $69.9 million (8.67% of total), up 115.8% versus $32.4 million in January 2010 (3.95% of total). Meanwhile, all the myriad print categories were down anywhere from 2% to 31% except two — religious books and professional/scholarly books. Long-term prospects for the e-books look brighter by the year, but one category bears watching: the neither fish-nor-fowl ‘Downloadable Audio Books.’ Those January 2011 sales rose by 8.8% to $6.5 million versus January 2010′s $6.0 million.
Grocery Sticker Shock Leads to Couponing
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the dry numbers that wholesale food prices rose 7.4% in February, while retail prices rose just 2.8%. Even though the grocery stores were eating much of the difference, the rising price of food is leading to sticker shock among consumers, and they are responding with more aggressive coupon use.
According to a Harris Interactive survey, 72% of shopper are using coupons to defray costs and 71% are comparing unit prices of package sizes. About 66% are shopping at discount grocery stores while 64% are stocking up on items when they reach low prices. And in a surprising twist, higher income households are more likely to scrutinize costs: 81% of households in $75,000 to $100,000 bracket are using coupons versus only 63% of households in $35,000 and less bracket.
In the battle of the sexes, the survey found 78% of women use coupons versus 66% of men, 75% of women compare unit prices of package sizes versus 67% of men, and 68% of women stock up at low prices versus 60% of men.
As margins get squeezed, more groceries are relying on retailer discounts provided by manufacturers to help the bottom line, for example, accounting for the equivalent of about 7% of sales at Safeway and 8% of sales at Kroeger, according to the Wall Street Journal. However, manufacturers are also facing margin pressure, and may curtail such incentives or shift them to retailers with the best prospects. Indeed, retailers continued to expand onto grocery stores’ turf with produce, frozen meats, bakery items, and frozen pizza. Target, Walgreens, and CVS are leading the retrofitting because they see it as an opportunity to boost sales by getting people to drop in more frequently.
And it’s working. Packaged Facts reported sales at traditional grocery stores rose 4% over the past five years, while Walmart, Target, and Costco grew at a rate of 10%. Target’s $500 million food investment in 2010 retrofitted 450 of its 1,750 stores with full-blown food sections that yielded 6% higher traffic — and sales — than at similar stores without them. Target noted another 400 conversions are planned for 2011. CVS, with prescription profits squeezed by discount health care plans, added food to lure shoppers inside stores. The 200 redesigned urban stores worked so well, it expects to convert another 1200 stores.
Of course, groceries can always remind brand-name manufacturers that they can increase shelf space devoted to higher margin private label products — a survey from Rabobank’s Food and Agri Research division found that the global market share of private/own label food products will double from the current 25% to 50% by 2025 — to keep the retailer discounts coming and the bottom line humming.
Luxury Sales Slide To Come?
A survey by market research firm Unity of 553 adults with a household income of $75,000 or more found that 4% will spend significantly more on luxury items over last year, 17% plan an increase, 57% will spend about the same, 26% will spend less, and 13% significantly less. Those in the 44-to-54 age group, which is when people typically reach their highest level of earning — already have plenty of stuff and their focus is shifting to spending on experiences, not items. Those in the 35-to-44 age group, which is the most acquisitive time, are more practical and don’t feel they need luxury items. They’re also more casual in their dress and more likely to invest heavily in personal technology, not a flashy watch or jewelry.
Easter Spending Hop in 2011
According to NRF’s 2011 Consumer Intentions and Actions survey, conducted by BIGresearch, the average consumer is expected to spend $131.04 on everything from candy to clothes for Easter – up from last year’s $118.60 but not quite to pre-recession levels. Total spending on Easter-related merchandise is expected to reach $14.6 billion.
April 7, 2011
Retail Sales Rise
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported its chain-store sales index for the week ending on April 9, 2011 rose 2.3% compared to the prior week. ICSC is forecasting an increase of between 3% and 3.5% in same-store sales at leading US retail chains in 2011.
Gas Prices Rise
The Energy Department announced that for the week ending March 28, 2011, the average price of U.S. gasoline rose to $3.684 a gallon, up from $3.596 per gallon a week earlier. Oil rose to about $107 per barrel as continued unrest in the oil producing regions caused unease about the possible short- and long-term effects of both current and potential supply disruptions.
Diesel prices rose to an average $3.93 per gallon, up from last week’s $3.91 per gallon.
Retail Sales Slide
For the week ended April 2, 2011, ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate was $95.140 billion, down 2.0% from last week’s $97.128 billion, and down 8.9% from same week in March 2010. The Spring break period came to a close, and due to the ‘Calendar Effects’ of a late Easter this year, the year over year percentage change registered a sharp drop.
Mortgage Rates Increase
Bankrate.com reported that the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.01%, up from last week’s 4.96%, according to its weekly national survey ending March 30, 2011. It also reported that the average conforming 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.25%, up from 4.16% last week.
March 2011 Consumer Confidence Drops
The Conference Board announced Consumer Confidence decreased in March 2011 to 63.4, down from 72.0 in February 2011, a three-year high. Analysts noted the sharp decline in confidence was prompted by a sharp decline in expectations. Consumers’ inflation expectations rose significantly in March and their income expectations soured, a combination that will likely impact spending decisions. On the other hand, consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, indicating that while the short-term future may be uncertain, the economy continues to expand.
March 2011 Employment Trends
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased in March for the sixth consecutive month. The index now stands at 100.9, up from February’s revised figure of 100.3. The index is up over 8% from a year ago.
January Home Prices Drop
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas decreased 3.1% in January 2010 on top of a decrease of 2.4% for December. Analysts noted the weakening home prices posted the sixth consecutive monthly decline with no real hope in sight for the near future. The data confirms the housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, the statistics are bouncing along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing. Washington DC appears to be the only market that has weathered the recent storm.
Pending Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, rose 2.1% to 90.8, based on contracts signed in February 2011, from 88.9 in January. That is the good news. The bad news is that the index is 8.2% below 98.9 recorded in February 2010, so there is considerable room for recovery. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. NAR analysts noted all of the regions saw gains except for the Northeast, where unusually bad winter weather may have curtailed some shopping and contract activity. Existing-home sales are expected to rise 5% to 10% this year. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.
Retail Sales Climb In February
The US Commerce Department reported February 2011 retail sales rose 1% from a year ago, the largest gain since October 2010 and the eighth straight monthly advance, due to strong job gains and more seasonable weather. The Department also revised January 2011 sales upward to a 0.7% increase (from 0.3% increase). Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.7% in February after a 0.6% gain in January. The downside is that gas prices rose 3.7% for the month, which tends to suppress retail sales as consumers shift dollars to their gas tanks.
Consumer Spending Up Big In February
According to the US Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption expenditures increased $69.1 billion, or 0.7%, in February 2011 — the largest increase since October 2010 and the eighth straight month of growth — as personal income increased $38.1 billion, or 0.3%, and disposable personal income rose $36.0 billion, or 0.3%. Note that most of the 0.7% increase in spending was the result of higher prices, including higher gas prices. Removing such inflation from the mix would reduce the consumer spending jump from 0.7% to 0.3%
Private wage and salary disbursements increased $16.4 billion in February. Goods-producing industries’ payrolls decreased $1.0 billion. Manufacturing payrolls decreased $1.6 billion. Services-producing industries’ payrolls increased $17.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $0.3 billion. Personal saving was $676.7 billion in February, compared with $710.5 billion in January, with personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.8% in February, compared with 6.1% in January. In general, with more people working, and saving slightly down, more peopl;e were spending.
