The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported its chain-store sales index for the week ending on February 19, 2011 rose 2.6% compared to the year-earlier period. The recent roller coaster pattern is not uncommon at times of low volume and high noise from weather and other seemingly small factors that get amplified. ICSC is forecasting an increase of between 3% and 3.5% in same-store sales at leading US retail chains in 2011.

The Energy Department announced that for week ending February 21, 2011, the average price of U.S. gasoline rose to $3.189 a gallon, up from $3.140 per gallon week earlier. Analysts expect regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $3.22 per gallon in April through September with a a 25% probability that the national average retail price for regular gasoline could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the June through September period and an 8% to 10% probability that it could exceed $4 per gallon in August and September.

Diesel prices rose one cent to an average $3.53 per gallon, up from last week’s $3.51 per gallon.

For the week ended February 19, 2011, ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate was $89.398 billion, up 5.4% from last week’s $84.805 billion, but down 0.5% from same week in February 2010. Shoppers finished off their Valentine’s Day shopping early in the week, and started to take advantage of President’s Day sales later in the week. ShopperTrak is expecting that President’s Day sales will drive the month back into the black when compared to February 2010. After this week, March will be rather uneventful sales-wise, as ‘Spring Break’ weeks (which vary by school and locale) will be the only drivers of shopping activity outside of the norm for the month. Easter falls very late this year (April 24th), and shopping for Easter will likely kick off in earnest in the second week of April.

Bankrate.com reported that the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 5.16%, down from last week’s 5.23%, according to its weekly national survey ending February 16, 2011. It also reported that the average conforming 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.43%, down from 4.48% last week.

The Conference Board announced Consumer Confidence increased slightly in January 2011 to 60.6, up from 53.3 in December 2010. Analysts noted consumers rated business and labor market conditions more favorably and expressed greater confidence that the economy will continue to expand and generate more jobs in the months ahead. Income expectations are also more positive.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas decreased 2.4% in December 2010 on top of a decrease of 1.6% for November. The US National Home Price Index declined by 3.9% during the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index is down 4.1% versus the fourth quarter of 2009, which marks the lowest annual growth rate since the third quarter of 2009, when prices were falling at an 8.6% annual rate.

The US Commerce Department, in its advance report reported that US business inventories increased to $1.435 trillion in December 2010, up 0.8% from November and 8.0% from December 2009. It also noted total December 2010 business sales, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.148 billion, up 1.1% from November and 8.7% from December 2009.

The National Retail Federation said it expects U.S. retail sales (which excludes exclude online sales, cars, gasoline, and restaurants) will rise 4% in 2011, but warned that reluctance of small businesses to add employees and higher gasoline prices could yet slow consumer spending. NRF noted US retail sales were up 5.7% during the 2010 holiday period, better than the 3.3% it had predicted.

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported its chain-store sales index for the week ending on February 5, 2011 rose 2.2% compared to the year-earlier period. ICSC is forecasting an increase of between 3% and 3.5% in same-store sales at leading US retail chains in 2011.

The Energy Department announced that for week ending February 7, 2011, the average price of U.S. gasoline rose to $3.132 a gallon, up from $3.101 per gallon week earlier. Analysts expect regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices to average $3.22 per gallon in April through September with a a 25% probability that the national average retail price for regular gasoline could exceed $3.50 per gallon in the June through September period and an 8% to 10% probability that it could exceed $4 per gallon in August and September.

Diesel prices rose one cent to an average $3.44 per gallon.

For the week ended February 5, 2011, ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate was $79.914 billion, up 1.2% from last week’s $78.997 billion, and up 1.1% from the same week in February 2010. As expected, the seasonal low period is giving way to Valentine’s Day shopping period, although yet another massive snow storm that hit from Texas to New England depressed sales. ShopperTrak is expecting strong sales in the coming week as shopper’s purchase Valentine’s Day gifts and Verizon sells out its initial inventory of the iPhone.

Bankrate.com reported that the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.02%, up from 4.97%, according to its weekly national survey ending February 3, 2011. It also reported that the average conforming 15-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.29%, unchanged from last week.

The Conference Board announced Consumer Confidence increased slightly in January 2011 to 60.6, up from 53.3 in December 2010. Analysts noted consumers rated business and labor market conditions more favorably and expressed greater confidence that the economy will continue to expand and generate more jobs in the months ahead. Income expectations are also more positive.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas decreased 1.6% in November 2010, raising possibility of a double-dip in home prices, and comes on top of a decrease of 1% in October.

The US Commerce Department reported December 2010 retail sales rose 7.9% from a year ago and overall sales surpassed their pre-recession peak. However, sales slowed in November and December to $380.9 billion, up 0.6% from year earlier, after October’s 0.8% rise.