Bankrate.com reported that the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained steady at 4.94%, down from 5.02%, according to its weekly national survey ending Jan , 2010. It also reported that the average conforming 15-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 4.32%, down from 4.39% last week.
January 20, 2011
Retail Sales Climb in December
The US Commerce Department reported December 2010 retail sales rose 7.9% from a year ago and overall sales surpassed their pre-recession peak. However, sales slowed in November and December to $380.9 billion, up 0.6% from year earlier, after October’s 0.8% rise.
Inventories Up
The US Commerce Department reported that US business inventories increased to $1.422 trillion in November 2010, up 0.2% from October. It also noted total business sales increased by more, rising 1.2% to $1.33 trillion. That suggests that businesses were to some extent surprised by the strength of sales in November, and may need to lift production in order to prevent inventories from getting so lean that they risk not having the goods customers want on hand.
Congress and US Debt Ceiling
The US has only about $355 billion left before hitting its statutory $14.29 trillion debt ceiling, leaving Congress to debate whether to raise the limit or not. Some Congressmen contended the debt limit might require an increase as early as March, but others are seeking to tie debt ceiling increase to spending reductions. Should the US surpass the ceiling, it would precipitate a default that would likely impose a long-lasting tax on all Americans and American businesses that may slow an economic recovery. There were seven increases in the statutory debt ceiling from June 2002, when the limit was $6.4 trillion, to October 2008, when it was raised to $11.32 trillion. The largest increase in history was in February 2009, when it was raised by $1.9 trillion to the current $14.29 trillion limit.
IPOs Rebound From Slump
Hoover’s Inc. reported that the US initial public offering (IPO) market rebounded in 2010 from the slump of the previous two years. Hoover’s IPO Scorecard reported 153 initial public offering took place in 2010, more than double from the 63 that took place in 2009, generating a total value of $38.7 billion, almost tripling the total of nearly $14 billion in 2009.
Precision Shopping
ShopperTrak is reporting that shoppers are visiting fewer stores, checking off their lists, and walking away as they shop less for pleasure and more for necessities. Customers are visiting an average of three stores per shopping trip in 2010, down from five in 2006.
January 6, 2011
Retail Sales Improving
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that retail sales rose 3.6% for the week ended January 1, 2011 compared to the year-earlier period. Analysts noted shoppers flocked to stores in greater numbers this year, partly from pent-up demand after two seasons of frugality, but also believing that the economy is finally improving.
Gas Prices Jump
The Energy Department announced that the average price of U.S. gasoline rose 2 cents to $3.07 a gallon, reaching its highest level since October 2008. Analysts differ on oil pricing for 2011, with most predicting a spike to $100 a barrel in near future from current $91 per barrel, before settling back below $100 per barrel.
December 2010 Consumer Confidence Slips
The Conference Board announced Consumer Confidence decreased slightly in December to 52.5, down from 54.3 in November. The Present Situation Index declined to 23.5 from 25.4. The Expectations Index decreased to 71.9 from 73.6 last month. Analysts noted unemployment and tight job market remain biggest consumer concerns, but predict economic expansion will continue through 2011 and pace of growth will remain moderate.
October Home Prices Drop
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas decreased 1% in October, a much steeper drop than the 0.6% expected by economists, and comes on top of a decrease of 1% in September.
Stocks Up for 2010
Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 201o at 11,578, up about 11% from the close of 2009; the S&P 500 ended 2010 at 1,258, up about 13% for the year; and the Nasdaq ended 2010 at 2,653, up about 17% from the end of 2009.
Mortgage Rates Climb
Bankrate.com reported that the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 5.02%, up from 4.96%, according to its weekly national survey ending Dec 29, 2010. It also reported that the average conforming 15-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 4.39%, up from 4.29% last week.
15.4% Increase In 2010 Holiday Spending
MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse, a macroeconomic report tracking national retail and services sales, reported estimated eCommerce sales from Oct 31 to Dec 24 2010 of $36.4 billion, a 15.4% year-on-year increase over the 2009 holiday season.
In terms of highlights, there were six days in the 2010 season that surpassed $1 billion in sales compared with three days in 2009. Top days included Tuesday November 30, which registered $1.16 billion in sales, and Wednesday December 1, which registered $1.13 billion. Cyber Monday — the Monday after Thanksgiving — generated $999.3 million in sales, a 25.3% increase compared to the Monday after Thanksgiving in 2009.
…Or, 13% Increase In 2010 Holiday Spending
ComScore Inc reported holiday season retail e-commerce spending from November 1 to December 26, 2010 was $30.810 billion, up 13% over period November 2 to December 27, 2009. ComScore reported Cyber Monday — the Monday after Thanksgiving — generated $1.028 billion in sales, a 16% increase compared to the Monday after Thanksgiving in 2009.
ComScore claimed the top five fastest growing online retail categories were computer hardware (up 23% over 2009), books and magazines (up 22%), consumer electronics (up 21%), non-game software (up 20%), and toys (up 16%).
